calculates that student drop-out will cost State billions
(10 Apr 2009)
New research by the Teachers’ Union of Ireland (TUI) today shows the shocking cost to the State of each student who does not complete second level education.
TUI calculates that of every group of students that commences first year of second level each year, the number who do not stay to complete the Leaving Certificate will end up costing the State €4b over a 40 year ‘working’ life or €100m per year.
The union believes the figures show that investment in education pays dividends in future years in terms of the reduction in social welfare and health spending.
However, TUI has also warned that student drop-out will increased due to a number of anti-disadvantaged education cuts.
Speaking today, TUI General Secretary Peter MacMenamin said:
“As Government do not seem moved by the human cost of education cutbacks, we have costed student drop-out to the State in financial terms and the results are quite shocking. It makes it crystal clear that education cutbacks, particularly those that affect the most disadvantaged in society, will have severe economic and social consequences for the population
The latest figures show that one in five students does not stay to complete the Leaving Certificate. This figure is even worse in the Dublin city area, with almost three in ten students not completing second level education. We anticipate that these problems will be severely exacerbated by the range of education cutbacks imposed since October.
While the fiscal costs are jaw dropping, the human cost is considerably more tragic and will have massive implications for our society if not tackled.
There is a direct correlation between early drop-out and socio-economic disadvantage in later life. Those who complete their second level education tend to live longer, and enjoy better health.
In the current climate, there is considerably less demand for the type of low paid manual labour which young people may have secured as early school leavers in the past. Working on the black market economy and involvement in crime are all too often pitfalls for such young people.
At a time when we are looking to develop a knowledge based economy, there will be ever fewer chances for unskilled workers or those who have not completed second level education in the coming years.
However, TUI firmly believes that those who have left our education system should be incentivised to return. Vocational Educational Committees (VECs) are ideally placed to meet this challenge immediately.”
TUI Calculations on the fiscal cost of Student Drop-Out
Student drop-out is currently running at around 20% nationally. (considerably higher in urban areas). This translates to a staggering 10,000 students who start second level any year not completing the Leaving Certificate
TUI would estimate conservatively that 5,000 of each of these cohorts of young people will end up dependent on the State.
Cost to Exchequer of unemployed person per year in terms of social welfare payments and loss of taxation income: €20,000
Over 40 year working period (in today’s terms): €800,000
Multiplying 5,000 by €800,000, results in drop-out costing a staggering €4 billion over the course of an average working lifetime for each group of students (circa 50,000) - or €100m per year - who commence second level education each year.
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TUI believes the following measures should be implemented urgently to proactively tackle this huge problem on an ongoing basis
1. Restoration of funding to programmes that prevent student drop-out by providing innovative learning methodologies, such as the Junior Certificate Schools Programme and the Leaving Certificate Applied and Leaving Certificate Vocational.
2. A concerted effort to bring as many disenfranchised unemployed young people back into the education system as ‘second chance’ students. Vocational Educational Committees (VECs) are ideally placed to meet this challenge immediately.
3. The continuation of the ESRI’s School Leavers Survey (SLS), which was axed earlier this year. Its absence will leave an information deficit on the disappeared of Irish education.
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Notes to the editor:
Current Retention Rates
Of the 60,786 students who entered first year of second level education in 1999, just 80.5% stayed in the system to sit the Leaving Certificate. With regard to gender breakdown, 85.7% of females and 75.5% of males were retained.
In the Dublin City area, the overall percentage was considerably lower at 72.1%.
[1] Retention of Pupils in Second Level Schools – 1999 Cohort (Dept of Education and Science document, March 2008)